As the population numbers are increasing in the world, will fresh drinking water be sufficient for this population, or will we suffer in the coming years from a shortage of drinking water? Did you also know that stock markets have reached high levels, and will they be sustainable? What is the reason for this and what is the relationship of this to the subject of future foresight and future trends?
Future directions:
The future will never be an image of the past. This does not mean that the future has no connection with the past. When we think about it, we must necessarily think of the past; Meaning that to better understand and plan for the future, we must think about trends and forces of change, and events that occurred in the past, and how they interacted with each other? How did it affect us in the past and shaped our world at the time? What is its impact in the future?
From here, we can say that the foresight process is based mainly on extrapolating the
general long-term trends in the paths of individuals and groups. The more we know about these trends and the extent of their impact, the better we can analyze current events and trends and plan for the future, taking into account the forces of these trends and changes and how they will shape our future.
But we must be aware that the future cannot be predicted, but we can plan for it. An
example of this is when an economist made a statement in 1929 saying that "stock markets
have reached high levels, and these levels will be sustainable or permanent." That is, the
stock markets will remain at their high levels, but it came right before the collapse of the
American stock market that year, and the beginning of a global economic depression that became known today as the Great Depression. This Great Depression and the associated social, economic and even political changes affected the world at that time. For example: Many analysts and experts have linked the Great Depression to the rise of populist movements in the world, such as the founding of the German Nazi Party, and many economic measures caused by the Great Depression, such as the taxation of imports at that time. Today we see those taxes between the United States, China, and the European Union are like what happened at the time, and how all these events developed, leading many analysts to claim that it was the main cause that led or paved the creation of World War II.
How can we plan for the future?
The future is not astrology but depends on a scientific basis represented in the ability to plan and imagine, there must be some steps that can be followed in order to be able to plan well for the future, these steps are as follows:
• Learning from the past, looking at the events and developments that have occurred
in the past, and how they interacted among them? And how it affected the world in
its various regions.
• Survey the external environment to identify the trends, changes and forces of change that are occurring or developing at the present time, that is, to be aware of what is going on around us, and what may affect us.
• The main step is to analyze these developments and future trends, and create or
develop future visions, any pictures of the future or so-called scenarios.
To start planning for the future, we must realize what directions we must take into consideration during the planning process.
What are the most prominent trends that will affect the world in the future?
• Population changes
It is one of the most prominent future trends because it includes many of the events we are experiencing at the present time, which will have a significant impact in the future. For example the birth rate in Africa is 6% and this high increase in the birth rate will affect the importance of the African continent in all aspects of life. Another example: Japan, where it is considered one of the most aging countries, and this leads to a slowdown in the economy in Japan due to the shortage of manpower.
There are studies and analyzes that anticipate that by 2050, more than two-thirds of the
world will move to live in urban areas, and of course, this will lead to the difficulty of finding ways to provide food and drink to these huge numbers. Subsequently will lead to changes in the behavioral patterns of individuals, meaning that everyone will have his own requirements.
• Disintegration of major powers “power diffusion”
That is, there are many political forces in the future, and it is not limited to others on
political forces but extends to include economic forces. For example: China is one of the most prominent consumer markets in the world and is the engine of the economy for the new world, but this leads to some changes, including that services will be responsive to the needs of the forces. There has been a shift in power and the emergence of new economic alliances and agreements, the most important of which is the emergence of the Chinese project, or what is known as the New Silk Road.
• Resources Pressure”
One of the most prominent factors that could affect this major trend is the pressure on
environmental resources. For example: There are predictions that by 2050, the world
population will exceed 9 billion. International organizations have also indicated that the
demand for fresh water will exceed 40%, and this is what is available in 2030, and this leads
to the migration of people from areas that suffer from water scarcity.
For example, when the Soviet Union fell, the prevailing trend was globalization, and this had social and other effects, such as: spreading Western culture as a dominant global culture.
But there are many countries such as China, Russia and America who were evangelists of
globalization but now impose taxes on imports of goods. This trend, if it develops, will greatly affect us in the future.
Global warming, deforestation, and sea level rise which will primarily affect coastal cities
that depend on tourism, and this will also affect the residents of those cities and their
revenues, and it will also affect the governments of countries. If this trend continues to
develop, it will have dire consequences.
• Massive Technological Developments
Technologies such as artificial intelligence, Iot, Robotics will redefine how we work, live,
communicate. Areas such as future skills and jobs will be affected significantly.
• What are the characteristics of future directions?
To be able to deal with these trends, we must understand them well, as these trends have
many characteristics, including:
• What are the characteristics of future directions?
To be able to deal with these trends, we must understand them well, as these trends have many characteristics, including:
• The degree of its impact varies from place to place; For example, rising sea levels will
have a greater impact on coastal cities and countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh than on cities or countries that do not have coasts such as Nepal, Jordan, or other countries.
• They differ in the degree of predictability of their development; For example: we can
predict population growth more than we can predict trends related to culture or
political developments.
• The rate at which these trends change varies among themselves; For example: the
increase in the temperature of the planet is slow, that is, the speed of its change is
slow. Over the past 100 years, the planet has warmed by less than 1 degree Celsius,
but the rate of increase in international trade in services has quadrupled in the past
two decades.
Finally, futters foresight process depends mainly on deducing general trends and
formulating scenarios that can be converted into a tangible reality that can be effectively
applied, in order to take advantage of any future opportunities or take preventive measures to deal with any risks or correct deviations. The purpose of future research is to provide a long-term time frame for the decisions we might make today, because the decisions we make now will affect our future and the future of our children and grandchildren in one way or another.
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