Our Preferred Future: Interview with Professor Sohail Inayatullah!
This episode is in English
Mothafar Shaker
Thank you Sohail for joining me in Emkan podcast, a nonprofit, uh, initiative, uh, aiming at to presenting the knowledge of future studies to Arabic speaking audience. Today. Uh, I am pleased to be hosting one of the, uh, well known futurist, sohail nyatallah, sohail as Jim dater described him the most effective, both theoretical and practical futurist. This is at the back of your, uh, your, uh, book. what worse? this is a testimonial from Jim and dater. Welcome to the show. Sohail
Modafar shaker
And of course, uh, from your work, I know that, uh, your preferred future is the visionary or the, uh, health, for everyone. Um, uh, but, uh, back to the what you had mentioned about, you know, the conspiracy theory that the narrative we are saying, and also when we studied the trends, what is happening due to the pandemic or the economic crisis,you see a wave of de-globalization, every country is now it’s the narrative of a castle narrative where it needs to protect its boarders, stop any immigration, making even, tariffs or taxes on imports and etc. and this is I see it as a withdraw from what we have seen of globalizing the trade, even the cultural aspect. You agreed that the pandemic, uh, has accelerated this narrative, that we are entering a de-globalization era, especially with what we are seeing between like the US, China, some parts in Europe, and especially
what’s happens between like, uh, even when, what we thought, it’s like, uh, a union of some kind, which is Italy, and they needed some medical supplies. They did not find any support from the EU. Do you see this is like shaving or a narrative that is emerging and can affect our future?
Sohail Inayatullah
No, I think you are right. So, if you now segmented it, so at the planetary level, there’s only one narrative that’s going to work. That’s the narrative of Gaia, right? We’re on one planet. There is no second planet, right? And so, we have to be doing planning should be thinking, and this is what COVID-19 has showed us. You can survive as one group or as one city or as one country, we’re all integrated. So that’s a crucial learning. Now in terms of countries as protective, I think that’s been wise. We protect in the short run to protect everyone. But if that becomes a long-term, I don’t think that’s so smart. I still want a guy in polity where people have mobile capital moves, culture moves, people move, but that’s much longer term. The short term is protection, but still remembering that viruses’ pandemics finances are really global in orientation, but clearly, I think you’ve hit on it near showing makes sense. We’ve been doing a project with the UNDP and government of Egypt on manufacturing scenarios.
• And scenario one was no change. Enhance inequity, the gap widens.
• Scenario two was not the gap widened scenario two was we go from a hundred million to 1 billion. Egypt focuses on Africa.
• Scenario three, the adaptive change is we use the fourth industrial revolution. We use the new technologies. We find ways to bring, reduce distance throughout Europe. So, new technologies, etc. that enhances Egypt, retraining all the workers. But
• scenario four was the most interesting. They said, let’s bring the informal sector into the formal, the people on the streets. Let’s now bring them part of the economy that the revolution in terms of the economy comes from bringing them as part of it. So, this is in this phase, thinking through what are some of the scenarios is near showing forever, or just for the short-term or really even the longer term 3d printing.
So, you don’t have traditional supply chains. So, these are some of the questions we’re all asking. I think you were correct to ask them which way it’s going to turn out. I mean, clearly how I’ve responded is I don’t know, to the main thing we do in future is we say, well, here are the alternatives. We don’t say this is what’s going to happen. That’s not what we do in future studies. If you say, this is what will happen while most likely you’re going to be wrong sometime. We say, here are the hints. We can see the trends. We can see the issues. Most likely this is what all emerge. We’re always thinking in terms of not one scenario, but alternative scenarios.
Modafar shaker
Excellent point and this are making it easy for my next question. And this specific issue is the role of an in-house a futurist like: someone who’s like fully, have a full-time, paid job to think about the future and to prepare his organization for the future. And many of my audience are coming from private and public entities who are working to work like, making their organization ready for the future, and all of my conversation with them, many of them are saying that it’s hard to make people thinking about the long term while they are like a hundred percent occupied with the operation and, you know, day to day, what is your advice to those guys? how they can approach it? how they can work to change the narratives and the underlying worldviews as well?
Sohail Inayatullah
There’s a couple of answers:
❖ Answer One is if you’re an Arabic speaker, you definitely want to find metaphors in Arabic that bring in the long-term. So, you use language from your own cultural context that invites the long-term end. So, with one group, Islamic group, they were saying, we’re not going to do 2050 thinking. We’re doing our children’s children because family are shown are very important in the OMA, right? You don’t say 2050 studies. You say, what would be the world look like for your children and their children? Now, suddenly the question is not about I’m too busy. I said, well, how can you be too busy for your children? You’d be too busy for your children’s children. You can’t be too busy for them. So now you’ve reframed it as a parental responsibility for the future. So, you always try to find out when your local context, what’s the story that gets people excited. So that’s one part.
❖ The second part of course we understand this is a world of interests, political interests. So, I always, when I’m working with political leaders, they’ll say, yes, I’ll think about the long-term. will it get me re-elected in the short-term?
▪ So, the vision of a better world has to have a carrot tomorrow. There has to be some interest where they can see some self-benefit of course. Now we want to increase the supplement for the collective. Cause we know if the collective is happy everyone will do well. So, it’s making that shift, linking the long-term with the short-term that’s true. You can link it through language, you can link it through culture, you can link it through interests, you can also link it through science. We know very clearly organizations that use the future, their profits go up and market capitalization goes up great work by Renee Beck. We know also pre-test post-test by call it cohort Chen. He did pre-test post-test on people using the future. Those who use future studies, they think transdisciplinary. If you’re in the Arab world, you know, knowledge is now unified unity of knowledge, as one of the core ideas in Islamic world, it’s not fragmented. So that comes from future studies.
▪ The second view is you’re not one view you’re open to alternatives.
▪ The third is you’re now more optimistic, the success of the west, whether you like it or not has been an optimistic view of the future. The future can be better and you can make it better. So, this is crucial and organizations, the future is better and you can make it better. How do you do that?
▪ And the last part is, again, narrative cohort Chen found that people feel they are in a boat, in a big ocean, they have more choices. So, you know, organization, if I can increase the choices for the board, linked the long-term for the short-term, show their interests are in change. I have a greater likelihood of success. When crisis come then suddenly the futurist is not strange. The futurist is the friend you want in the room. So, this is the time to help in the transition. Most people feel nervous, anxious, mental illness is on the rise. The role of future is to say, okay, if you continue this way, this will happen. What’s the better pathway? What’s an alternative pathway? So that’s the language corporations, countries understand because most people don’t want to be stuck where they are now.
Modafar shaker
Right, Right. Yes, please. (interruption)
Sohail Inayatullah
Well, the educational system I was working with a few days ago, they said the old model was you’re running on a treadmill learning, but going nowhere. And they said, okay, let’s go on the sprint. You know, let’s learn all the skills to run faster. They said, no, we want to bushwalk that’s an Australia Bush walk, you go in nature, nature, you are commuting with spirit, the deeper part of life. You’re commuting with your friends; you’re connecting with nature and you’re learning things about what you don’t know. So, they don’t see it as a sprint seed as a bushwalk with many alternatives and you find different ways to learn. So, you learn about climate, you learn about the ecosystem, you learn about your friends. So, you learn in different ways. So, this is again, I was asked, what’s the better narrative in your organization that makes futures work?
Modafar shaker
Nice. So, first thing is to use like cultural, specific narratives and language to focus on that, to link it to the, to the Short-term or to the strategy or application planning, and to make it, uh, alternative that you can change the futures. And here, uh, I can use an Arabic approval that you are using all the time, which is a [اعقلها وتوكل ], which is a trust in God. But tie your camel. Right?
Sohail Inayatullah
I learned that from my mother when I was very small,
That’s the two things she taught us that and compassion. So, don’t judge others always be compassionate and she always talked about how the prophet was compassionate.
Modafar shaker
God Bless you
Sohail Inayatullah
That’s, that’s two things learn from your parents.
Modafar shaker
Actually, this proverb is very important because it gives you two things:
▪ The first that you can make their future better by taking action. It’s not like, you know, a breed deterministic world. You can, you can. And also it’s have this narrative that you are not like a monkey on a tree. There is metaphysics, you know, there is something beyond and you can reference to that.
▪ And I think this is important, especially when we want to advocate a sustainable future view, because what you are saying so here you cannot have a sustainable future unless you are working at a deeper level of changing the world views, making an inclusive, vision for the future.
which is I think now it’s very important, especially with the current crisis that we are seeing, touching on what you you’re advising to people who already in future thinking.
So, if I am someone working, let’s say in a strategic scientific planning within an organization or innovation management, but I wanted to introduce a future study, I want my organization to think long-term. what can I do on a practical? what have you seen from other organizations that worked?
Sohail Inayatullah
So again, every organization is different,
❖ but one thing that works is you present to the board. If you do nothing, here’s what it’s going to look like in 20 years, you think you’re the no action scenario is this is what it would lead to. That’s one.
❖ second is what’s called the emerging issues report. Here are five things today you can’t see, which could impact you to make things worse or better because some organizations want risk mitigation. So, you have to reduce their risk. Keep the CFO happy, right? The CFO has to be happy, but the CEO, he or she is in charge of opportunities, not just risk mitigation. They want new markets, new products, new processes.
They want to innovate. You have to keep them happy. So, it’s that balance reduce risk, increase possibility. Then you ask themselves, are there examples where people didn’t do that?
What happened to them? The largest milk supplier in the U S just went bankrupt a
year ago. They were unable to anticipate the change in demographics and dietary habits. The rise of almond milk, the rise of soy milk, the rise of veganism. So, they had one view of their product. Disruptions came and they, as we say in the business, got caught up.
So, this is, you want to work with your organization, our current strategy. It may or may not be good. Are we able to see our blind spots? If you look at the wonderful billion Singapore, COVID-19, uh, someone I was working with her, he said, we forgot about our dorms with migrant workers. We made it. COVID safe for everywhere. And COVID broke out in the dorms. We forgot about them. What about our worldview? Didn’t see them of course. We weren’t, we were exclusionary. So, we forgot about our blind spot. So, this is always with organizations. What’s the risk? What are the opportunities? What are our blind spots? What are you unable to see? The role of the future is there is to open the window, take away the drapes, show another possible world. Now in every organization, there’s the idealists. There you have to find them. We’re the ones that want a new vision that are very excited to feel put down for them. You want to lighten their burden. Every organization has 30% who want to follow. You have to make it easier for them to follow the new efficient 10 to 30%. Just want to be left alone, leave them alone. And there’s 10% will fight you don’t what you do. You try not to be drawn into their black hole. You stay focused on the new possibility.
It always helps if the CEO board is excited, if that’s part of the effort, getting that group excited about doing futures, if they’re not excited, then I ran one workshop and the managers came out and this is brilliant. Fantastic. That’s a great go present to the board. They go, no, I’m leaving the company now and creating my own company. They did not feel that the board was receptive to opportunities. So, I always tell people find in every organization there’s something that doesn’t fit, use that as your stepping stone to create something else. But that means you have to be comfortable with being ahead. So many people, all I want to be ahead, but they become uncomfortable because you don’t fit, role the futurist is to not fit.
Modafar shaker
So, what you’re saying is it’s okay for a futurist to be an outlier, like something and be comfortable with not to agreeing or receiving a negative feedback on what is like preaching or something. And, uh,
Sohail Inayatullah
That point I would tell the future’s not to be preaching to be listening. So, we’re listening for the weak signals, helping people get better, helping organizations get better. Some futures say, no, they have all the data. They’re the experts. That’s the one style that’s okay. I’m okay with that. The other style is actually, we’re there to facilitate a better planet. That’s that stewardship. So, it’s almost figuring out what’s your own story in the futures.
Modafar shaker
And here is, also Sohail an important aspect of the CRA the cause of layered analysis that it takes it have this all-inclusive and you know, a planetary future thinking. But it’s also so practical that you can take it and implement it within your organization. From the time that you develop the CLA till now, what has been changed any like modifications, something that you are newly like introduced and you know, some tweaks to the methodology itself
Sohail Inayatullah
Yeah. I mean, it’s gone from CLA one type to CLA five types. So, before I would just say deconstruction here’s the issue was underneath wasn’t any what’s underneath. Then I moved to here’s today. Here’s tomorrow. So, education is like a factory today. Tomorrow will be like a jazz orchestra, excellence, emergence, ministry, designs the orchestra. So today, tomorrow then CLA type three is I’m looking at all the stakeholders. So, if I’m a bank, how did all of my customers see me? How to regulate or see me? How do other banks see me? So, I’m know I’m looking at the view, the view of the story from multiple stakeholders, then I’m seeing where do I want to be? And then finally, of course, the one I do more and more these days is inner CLA. So is my vision of where I wish to be tomorrow working.
If not, what story do I need? What’s the better story for my life? So, I know a call, I was running a workshop in Abu Dhabi and he said, well, he doesn’t like to go on social media. And we went deeper and deeper and he came up with his story, the side boy, something like that. And then he changed his story to something else. I forgot what it was, but he went from shy boy to something like, uh, you know, the, uh, orchestra leader or, you know, king of the room.
So, he said, here’s the story that doesn’t work. What’s a better story. So CLA I’ve gone from just one type of CLA to multiple types of CLA and those have emerged through workshops, people asking questions. So, in full future’s work, we’re not just saying it should be strategic
foresight to change strategy. It’s transformative work. So, you and I both change in the process.
So, if I asked you and then I’ll ask you, and so what’s your metaphor of your future’s work right now? And what would you say?
Modafar shaker
I think for me personally, it’s, I think a team would play. I’m like it’s not the leader. Or, uh, you know, as you said, it’s not time of breaching the future. Rather we are a group working towards that. And it’s in our interest, all of us to, to have the interest of everyone taking into consideration into that future, this will be like a sustain the future.
Sohail Inayatullah
So, if we did a CLA on that, so my Duffer CLA would be a team player. Worldview is partnership., Strategy is developing partnerships participation with many other group’s alliances. And the listening would be number of partnerships made per month as your measurement. So, if I did a quick CLA on you.
Modafar shaker
That’s, I think the quickest CLA.
I remember our workshop with you and back in Banco Utah, literal group there, and you were saying something that if you have like 20, 25% of your population behind your vision or the common vision, it will come and true, right. Is this, is this something like, you know, you still believe in. And, uh, if so, what is your advice again, for a new touch on this? Like, if I am, someone was working in a future, thinking future started within my organization, community, what kinds of people should I look to make this Alliance behind a common vision?
Sohail Inayatullah
So, this is an article in science magazine, and they examined how many people you need on your site to have strategic success. So, I was working with one group and there was one person and she was totally inspired by futures thinking. So, then she got her called again involved. Then she got head of strategy.
So, then we ran an initial futures workshop for the strategy team that went great. Then she got the leadership team and then we did that with them. That went great. Then she got the board. And so now the three big players: the strategy team, the
leadership team and the board of directors, they’ve all been through a foresight process. So now she has many of the groups already engaged in innovation.
So, this is she figured out, okay, where are the sparks in my organization who want to be ignited? And then you just go ignite them.
So, she figured out her own story and then use that story for organizational success. She didn’t go to the hardest person in your organization who doesn’t want her to have change. Right?
Modafar shaker
Right.
Sohail Inayatullah
She went to the easy ones and you try to build momentum because this work, as we know, can be difficult. So, we’re always trying to build momentum, make it easier, make it easier. So, it’s more like going downstream or rolling a stone down a hill, as opposed to Sisyphus pushing a stone up. So, you want to find a story that gets success. So, I don’t do blanket. What should every future be do, but we know some futures say futurist by stealth.
Modafar shaker
Yes.
Sohail Inayatullah
So, if you call yourself a futurist, you’re going to fire you. No one’s being interested. So, you’re a secret futurist. Some you’d even don’t use the word future. You just call it an organizational innovation, transformative change, others. You can see no we’re doing strategic foresight. So, you find language that the board gets excited about. We used to run a course with Melbourne business school and we called it creating a path to the new organization. That didn’t, it was okay, but not great. Then the head of marketing said out, you have the wrong name, call it future thinking and strategy development. And it doubled. We asked people why? and they said, we’re here for future thinking. The CFO will pay for strategy development. I learned a lot from that. This was quite interesting for me. The intention stays the same, but you find the language.
Modafar shaker
You’re only like change the packaging that it’s will be more accepted to the stake holders.
Sohail Inayatullah
Yeah, we stayed authentic what we wanted do we still taught the same thing. We didn’t change that, but we made it something that was acceptable, exciting, innovative. So, people want novelty, but the brain is wired for the past. So that’s one of our tensions
Modafar shaker
But Sohail how can you keep your authenticity? And you know your true north, why you are pressured by your CEO, CFO, colleagues to change and maybe working along the lines that already established in the organization. How can you not playing on the lines, but being smart and presenting this change in the organization, maybe from what works with the organizations, you have been working with.
Sohail Inayatullah
So, some people get very clear. Here’s my story here, my vision, as long as it’s aligned, I stay. Others say they no longer share my vision and my ethics I’m leaving. So, for us, it’s getting clear your vision, your ethics, your story. Once those are clear, you’re then sharing your futures work from that perspective. So, this is getting closer to what you said. You’re the team player. You’re creating pathways for everyone to win. So, then you’re going to invite colleagues and clients and friends who want to play with you. I had one person he took another course is his metaphor was the lone ranger alone doing really well, but didn’t, wasn’t happy. So, he is discussed why he was that way. He changed his story to one of the Avengers. Then he changed his strategy, he now does lots of group work. And he said, he’s much happier. His clients are much happier, he found a better way to express himself. So, if the organization can’t then, so once you know your story, you look for people in your organization that fits your story. If ultimately the discord is so great, you have to leave, right. Especially if you’re a futurist, you can’t suppress what you want to share. Then, then you’ll be unhappy.
Modafar shaker
But the first step, what I’m getting from you Sohail. the first step is getting your story, your narrative as a person, right? Then you can project it to the, to the outer wall, right?
It’s like Gandhi said be the change that you want to see if you want, you
want that you should believe in that future, in the first place and ready to give it all what’s your on, what’s your get.
Sohail Inayatullah
yeah, if you’re a metaphor, is the future is the chess set, then learn how to play chess, right? So, we want inner deeper work, as opposed to prescribe you should do this.
Modafar shaker
Nice. Okay.
Sohail Inayatullah
And this I’m very much with you. We’re facilitating an alternative future, as opposed to telling people, you must do this. Even if we have very clear views, what they should do
That tension, right?
Modafar shaker
Yeah. But, also this idea of uncertainty and people are not comfortable when dealing with uncertainty and especially with the current business environment and the strategic planning where they assuming that business as usual, the uncertainty a little bit is very minimal. And even that’s a gap for uncertainty. It’s already been mitigated by risk management. And I read one article where they said the first thing to say, when you think about the future is to accept that the future is uncertain by nature. And you are not to predicting the future. Rather, you are like being ready for that.
Sohail Inayatullah
There’s two parts.
• One is CLA says, it’s four type of risk:
❖ Risk one is you have the wrong measurement. You want a wellbeing world, and your measurement is only GDP. So, you’re in trouble.
❖ Risk Number two, your system does not work. You have a great metaphor, but your system does not represent the metaphor. So, you have a new bad bureaucracy you have all those things.
❖ Risk Number three is worldview risk. When I say the Singapore example, the world view led to risk and COVID spread
❖ Risk Number four is the wrong narrative. So first I tried to see, see risk in multilevel once you do that, then of course, you’re going to be far more successful.
• The second part is, again, here’s things I can change. Here’s things I can’t change. So, to be anxious about what I can’t change, how does that help? So, it’s figuring here is the world I can influence here’s the world I can’t influence. So promising people too much It’s also a future’s mistake that they can change everything. We know that’s not the case.
Modafar shaker
Right.
Sohail Inayatullah
(misunderstanding meaning) There’s so many great philosophers. Here’s where you can make progress. Here’s areas where there’s cycles. So, we’re not just a linear future. We’re into cyclical patterns, spiral patterns, we’re into understanding pendulums. We think we’re going to improve, improve, improve, and there’s a pendulum shift back, right? Health, health, health, health pandemic comes.
Modafar shaker
Yes.
Sohail Inayatullah
So, we as futurists are always to understand the complexity of history and use that complexity to understand possible futures. That doesn’t mean you don’t have a story of trust and peace and equanimity of mind where you feel happy every day.
Modafar shaker
Right.
Sohail Inayatullah
so, the future shouldn’t be a way to make oneself anxious.
Modafar shaker
Nice. Do you think there is a saying that history repeats itself, but here I think you are mentioning something else When you are saying it’s a cyclic, not like the repeating itself?
Sohail Inayatullah
Okay. So, we in our book, macro history, we found about eight, nine, 10 patterns four were crucial
• one, the future is linear. Every stage he gets better. So, more and more science, more and more technology.
• The second is pendulum. So, us, we can see as a pendulum shift towards whatever you want to see, science versus conspiracy, democracy versus authoritarianism. We see the shift. Will they go on forever? Well, maybe it will just swing back. That’s patterns number two
Majority, it gets very modern and people say, give me the old ways and it swings back to the old ways.
Tere is also cycle where in fact organizations decline and they go bankrupt, they get worse. Then we have spiral where you keep history, but you create the new future. So was being sensitive to the pattern of change.
So, this takes reflection on the system and figuring out where is my organization, this pattern of change. So, our work on macro history does that. I have a course now online become futures.
Futures One-on-one so that’s a kind of, we take people through the six pillars process is not just one. It’s a structured way to think about alternative futures.
Modafar shaker
Tell us more about the online course. who is it for someone who has already experienced and thinking about the future, or like doesn’t have any prerequisites who can benefit from this?
Sohail Inayatullah
I mean, it’s designed for the self-paced learner. We have students, we have professors, we have senators, we have business people. We just have random people. This is what’s fun about online course. They sign up with their own research question, future of the self-future of their country, their organization, then go, they go through our structured process. Those who are really into it, they take a certificate
and they write a short article. They have to take the idea and make it happen. One would be just fascinating. Is it as interesting they go through the process?
• The second is, is fascinating. I want to know impact. I want to try out scenarios in my organization. I want to try out CLA in my country. So, they do some work and then they publish the work and we get them a certificate. So, it’s really different than pathways where someone is more professional versus someone, oh, this is interesting. Let me just structure it. And now we have a new course on because sometimes you come up with a vision organization, then there’s conflicts. So how do you resolve conflicts between the CFO and COO the board and the CEO, or if you’re a conflict with your colleague. So, this was called conflict transformation using the future to transform conflict. So, we’re trying to, you know, make this work and make it easy. And with COVID-19 as you know, travel is ended. So, we find a way to get futures more public.
Mothafar Shaker
Excellent. sure. We will be posting the link for the course within the podcast page.
Sohail Inayatullah
Unfortunately, in English. we’re hoping for Spanish version, but right now, just in English.
Mothafar Shaker
Okay. Maybe in the future, we’ll have an Arabic one as well.
Sohail Inayatullah
Be Brilliant.
Mothafar Shaker
any recommendation for people and Arabic speaking like resources where they can find more resources about futures, thinking about you know someone who wants to get into this field. Is there any recommendation I know rain melon from the UNESCO future literacy have another version for his book, which is future transformation I think? this is maybe one of the sources, but from your side and your recommendations?
Sohail Inayatullah
I think you’ve hit it. It’s not so rich. We need more is a colleague, he’s an Arab speaker in Geneva, so he’s translating some of my articles. Uh, we don’t have so many, so the more you can write, the more colleagues can write even better. But I think, I mean, I would not be the expert to say, you know, what are the best resources, but, but clearly, I think there’s an issue there because it needs to be in, in the local language with local stories and with local case studies.
Mothafar Shaker
Right? So, in English, what’s your recommendations other than your books? Of course, and your courses, that’s for you
Sohail Inayatullah
I mean, you know, one of my first readings was in science fiction. I got excited by Isaac Asimov’s foundation series. Then I read Arthur C Clarke’s books. Then I moved to Alvin Toffler, then Johan gold hung his 40 50 books. I actually read, most of them inspired me then Jim daters work, Elise Boldings work, Ervin, Laszlo, Oliver Markley. These are some people who have really done a lot of great futures work. there are quite a few good thinkers. If I look at who really, I enjoyed in futures, we would read widely and not just get stuck on any one view, but we’re always looking at here’s a different perspective, different perspective, so whatever can inspire you to finish the book is good enough.
Mothafar Shaker
Thank you Sohail again and it was my pleasure.