Peace be upon you, dear listeners, in a new episode of the Imkan al-Mustaqbal podcast
In this episode, we will talk about a number of topics of interest to workers in the field of futures, strategy, and future foresight, both in the public and private sectors, about the best practices that can be followed to apply future foresight and its programs in the institution, and what are the tips through which we can start future foresight programs As a new practice in the organization? We will also discuss other topics such as: The impact of institutional culture on the ease of application and acceptance of future foresight programs in the institution. All this and more through our interesting interview with today's guest, future foresight and strategy expert Antonio Alvarenga, where we will present the most prominent ideas and advice that were mentioned during the interview, which took place in English through today's podcast in the Arabic language. If you would like to see the full interview, you can watch it on the Emkan Futures YouTube channel.

Thank you very much for having me. Modafar, thank you very much. I am really honored to be here and to participate and try to share a little bit of my experience and foresight,scenarios

A brief profile of our guest today, Antonio Alvarenga, is an international consultant, university professor, and researcher in the field of foresight, strategic future scenarios, and innovation for more than twenty years, as Antonio has worked with many institutions globally in Europe, and in a different number of countries. He is also the founder and president of ALVA Research and Consulting. You can learn more about Antonio and his company, ALVA, through the link to his company, ALVARC.COM, which we will include in the description of this episode. ADD URL

At the beginning of the interview, I asked Antonio what are the best practices that we can follow to implement future foresight in the organization or in the company in which we work, as he answered me:

First: we must prepare the challenge; That is, we have a clear topic that we want to study, which of course depends on the nature of the institution and the environment in which it operates

They mostly have three or four parts that are common. The first part of preparation, definition of the problem, of the question, of the focal issues

Second: We must identify signs of change and future trends that affect or will affect us in the future

Third: After knowing these future directions, we will move to scenario planning as one of the ways to organize this information. That is, we must analyze the information that we gathered in the previous step, and make a plan, how can we deal with these trends?

Fourth: The last logical step: which is the implementation of projects, initiatives, or strategies that enable us to deal with these scenarios
These four steps It is important to remember that the foresight process is designed based on the organization's work environment and the challenges it faces. Therefore, we must also choose the most appropriate tools and methods of applying the previous stages; That is, the tools we use differ from one institution to another, and according to the nature of that institution and the environment in which it operates

I would say that of course, you need to know these frameworks, you need to know the methodologies how to do it, you need to know the platforms but you need to know the company, the organization, the team that will be using this. So, I would say that probably one of the most important things is to pick and design that pick the right instruments, the right design, the right processes considering that the already ongoing planning, decision making and strategy definition process of the organization.

We must focus on building a culture of future thinking by applying the various foresight processes, involving and empowering the largest number of stakeholders in these future foresight processes and events, and working to highlight the benefits of these processes and events. That is, we must show the management of the institution in which we work, and our colleagues at work, that there is a benefit behind these activities that we carry out. Care must also be taken in cooperation with other organizational units in the organization such as: strategic planning, innovation in the design and implementation of these events and future foresight operations

As for when I asked Antonio about his advice to institutions that would like to start applying future foresight programs as a new program; That is, they do not have previous experience in this field. Antonio focused on two main points

The first point: which is building a unified understanding in the institution about shaping the future. What does the future mean? What does foresight mean? What are the terms that we will use and agree on in this institution in order to have this unified understanding? And these terms are like: What do we mean by signals of change? What do we mean by future directions, by future scenarios? or even
What do we mean by future? Does everyone have agreement about the concept of the future? Can we predict the future? This is what we mean by building a single understanding

As for the second step: it is building internal capabilities in the institution or company among the employees through training, and building internal teams to work on future foresight projects, with a focus on making these teams inclusive of all organizational units concerned with foreseeing the future so that there is acceptance of these projects, and they are useful to the institution

وهنا وددت التعرف على أبرز الفروق بين القطاعين الخاص والعام عندما نأتي إلى تطبيق برامج استشراف المستقبل، وكيفية تعاطي كلاً من هذين القطاعين مع المستقبل، وكيفية الاستعداد لها. حيث قال أنطونيو: ” أن الاختلاف الناشئ بين القطاعين -العام والخا ص- يعود بالضرورة إلى اختلاف التحديات التي تواجهها كل مؤسسة في أي من القطاعين”. في العادة أن القطاع الخاص يركز أكثر على نطاق زمني أضيق نتيجة التزامات الشركة للمستثمرين، وضرورة إظهار نتائج
إيجابية فيما يتعلق بالربحية، و market share ، أو نسبة الاستحواذ على السوق، وغيرها من المؤشرات المتعلقة بالربحية. أما التحديات في القطاع العام فهي أصعب، لماذا؟ لأن مؤسسات القطاع العام يوجد بينها في العادة تداخل في الصلاحيات، وإدارة مصالح المعنيين؛ أي الناس أو الجات التي سوف تؤثر على اتخاذ القرار في مؤسسات القطاع العام هي أكبر وأعقد، على عكس القطاع الخاص، حيث يتم في القطاع الخاص اتخاذ القرارات بصورة أسرع وذلك بسبب وجود تركيز واضح على مواضيع الربحية، وما إلى ذلك. لكن العامل المشترك بين أي مؤسسة، سواء في القطاع العام أو في القطاع الخاص هو ضرورة إظهار النفع والفائدة من عمليات وبرامج استشراف المستقبل المعني سواءً في القطاع الخاص أو العام. وأضاف حول هذه النقطة تحديداً: ” يمكننا إظهار النفع والفائدة من استشراف المستقبل للمعنيين، مع العلم بالعادة أن برامج استشراف المستقبل هي برامج طويلة الأمد، نتحدث عن خمس عشر سنوات أو أكثر. حيث قال أنطونيو: ” أن في ظل الزمن الذي نعيش فيه الآن والتغييرات الم تسارعة، أصبح الأمد الطويل. عندما نتحدث عن الزمن أصبح أقصر، خصوصا مع ما شهدناه من COVID-19 ، والتغييرات المتلاحقة سواءً التقنية أو في مجالات البيئة، والاقتصاد، وغيرها. لذا يجب على أي قائد أو مدير في أي مؤسسة أن يتوفر لديه قدرة ومصداقية لإقناع المعنيين أن مؤ سسته، وقيادة مؤسسته تعرف -وعلى علم – بالتحديات والتغييرات التي تطرأ على هذه المؤسسة وفي البيئة التي تعمل بها، وأنهم يقومون بمتابعتها وتحليلها مما يزيد من مصداقية هذا القائد، وقدرته، واستعداد مؤسسته للمستقبل .

?What is the credible leader now

I don’t think a credible leader now is someone that says I know where we are hidden. Okey that’s because you know we don’t know that so much uncertainty that the most sectors actually we are not sure where we are hidden

That is, a leader who has credibility is the leader who says that we know the changes and challenges that we are facing, and that we will face in the future, and we are working and planning to prepare for this future. And not that leader who says that the future will be such and such. Then, the organization's leadership must work through coordination between internal units such as: marketing, corporate identity, and strategy to develop a clear vision. How does the organization see itself, the environment in which it operates, and future challenges?

And as you know, dear listeners, we have talked in previous episodes about the subject of uncertainty or uncertainty, and what is the importance of this term when we study the future and apply future foresight programs. Uncertainty is a major characteristic of the future, and the goal of future foresight processes is not to reduce the uncertainty process, or to predict the future; But the goal is to identify changes and trends, or uncertainties, and the possibility of their development in the future, and to plan and work in order to be ready for that future. Hence the importance of changing the language we use in our institutions when talking about the future, especially with regard to uncertainty and its acceptance.

When I asked our guest about this particular point; What is the issue of uncertainty and its relationship to looking forward to the future, and how to deal with it? He replied that we must build internal processes and programs in the organization that encourage us to use and communicate a unified vision for the future; And we mean the preferred future, and accept that the future we can't predict. But what we can do is to be prepared for the future by

First: feeling comfortable, talking about the inevitability of change; That is, accepting uncertainty in the future, and that this is the normal situation, and relying in planning for the future on the belief that things will remain as they are. It is a wrong belief, and that will not give us preparation for the future, nor will it help us to be ready for the future

At the end of the interview, I asked Antonio about tips for the best sources and references for those working in the science of futurology and future foresight to expand on this subject, as he mentioned a number of sources such as

World Energy Authority website
OECD websites
The Organization of Development Countries and the European Commission

The European Organization for the Environment, which provides open or free sources through which it is possible to learn about the methodologies of these institutions in the field of foreseeing the future

There are many international institutions that do very interesting for future foresight and scenarios Work also in Dubai. For instance, in the emirates but I would for instance said the European commission that I know a little bit better as the join research center, OECD. Also has a team working in a very interesting way with foresight and scenarios. The international energy agency. And I am talking about open sources international energy agencies, European environmental agencies, and then some governments also that are doing very interesting work in this field

Also, when we asked about his favorite book in this field, he directed me to a book called scenarios the art of strategic conversation, the author is keys founder hide them. I will include the link to these institutions, and to this book, in the episode description, and on our website, Emkanfutures.com. ADD URL So we have come to the end of this episode. Dear listeners, I hope you have benefited and enjoyed the information we have provided
Follow us in our upcoming episodes and more interviews and useful information through the Imkan al-Mustaqbal podcast. May you be well