Dear listeners, in a new episode of the Possibility of the Future podcast, we will talk in this episode about the most important terms and concepts in the field of future foresight science, and about the importance of this science, its history and its origins, and the most prominent companies and governments that have applied some of the important methodologies and tools in this field, and we will also talk about some of the sources The task and reference books in this science, we will also review some important concepts related to how to look at the future and how we divide it in time according to our personal view, and how it is also divided into the future, and what is the importance of the future, and why is thinking about the future necessary?

Follow us in this episode to know all this information and more
Who among us has not watched a video predicting the future of jobs after the era of automation and artificial intelligence, or has not watched a clip of 19- All these videos were on YouTube talking about the future of the world after Kov talks about our place for this episode, which is: “The Future”. The future is a coming time that has not happened yet, but it is definitely an event, but with all these predictions, analyses, books and lectures, we must all admit that information about the future is incomplete and necessarily it can only be so

It will also be accepted as a state, circumstance, or situation in the coming days, or what is the future of cybersecurity after the development of artificial intelligence and quantum computing technologies. Rather, this view of the future depends on the view of the future being or that time is linear, meaning that events follow and follow. From the past there were events that produced our present, and the events that are happening now in
The present will shape and produce our next future, but for information, there are some civilizations that view time as a cyclical time, meaning that beings and humans return to life after their death in another form, such as: the Inca civilizations, and some other civilizations. But what we adopt here is the linear view of time

Being incomplete about the future leads us to our next point: can we predict the future? It is called predictions or The, dear listener, you may have heard about Nasra Danes, who published a book predicting many events that will happen in the future, some of them attribute to him that he predicted the great fire of London and (an incomprehensible word) Napoleon, the world war, and the events that will take place on However, many of the predictions that appeared in the Nusrat Dans book did not happen or were wrong, and even the events attributed to him that he predicted can be interpreted, analyzed and applied to many other events. Scientists, researchers and specialists in this field believe that no one can predict the future, but why can't we predict the future?

This is due to the fact that the future or the events that will take place in the future are volatile, and we are uncertain about what these events are, and when they will happen? What is its shape, size and scope of influence? And also about the complexity of events, the amount of events that could happen in the future, and how they might interact with each other? And the mystery surrounding these events

These four characteristics related to the future are called VUCA

Volatility -1

uncertainty -2

complexity -3

ambiguity -4

It is a term that appeared at the end of the twentieth century among many researchers in the fields of leadership and strategy, whether VUCA (in the civil or military sectors, and this term became VUCA) used when we talk about any circumstance or situation characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Undoubtedly, the future is characterized by these Properties. It is characterized by volatility, uncertainty and complexity

Why talk about the future since we can't predict it, and also, then, the uncertainty? The reason is simple and can be summed up in one of the well-known phrases in the field of foreseeing the future: preparing for the future We can predict the future, but we can actually

To be ready for the future

Types of future:


When we talk about the future, the future can be divided into

1- The near future, which extends from this moment to 5 years


2- An intermediate future that extends from 6 to 10 years


3 - A distant future of more than 10 years

This is one of the divisions regarding the time horizon of the future, but it should be noted that there are many other time divisions, some of which talk about the imminent, near and medium future. It can be divided into a number of time ranges, but what I mentioned from the near, medium and long time is the most widely used, and it is adopted in a number of strategies that talk about the future, which we will refer to, such as: The Emirates Future Strategy, which was issued in 2016. We also divided the future according to the horizon There are also those who divide the future according to our view of how events will develop in the future, and how the future can be shaped based on these developments, and here we have terms such as: The term preferred future, which is our view or vision of the future, which we prefer to happen. And there are those who call events possible, meaning the general and what can be imagined in the future

In the future possible, or in the English language, the future possible, there are those who call the future that will be an image of the present, that is, in the sense that the current situation will continue in the future. future probable

Certainly, looking at the future with a broader angle than the probable future will benefit us in many areas and the opportunities for future development and growth, the most important of which is in determining the future possibilities for countries and individuals. Also, on the other hand, it helps us in identifying risks and threats to institutions, as well as those that may occur in the future

An example of this: If you are in an institution concerned with education, such as a university or a school, for example, if you are planning for the future in terms of a possible outlook or a probable future, then you will plan for the future from the point of view that the future will be like the present, that is, there will be students who register with you in three .. based on What you currently see is the university, and the majors will be one, two

But looking at the future from the point of view of the possible will help you to see the technological changes that we are currently seeing, which will certainly shape the future of education, and will education remain confined to many places at any time and place, and as we also see
A place and a time, or as we see it now, where it has become available from trends that do not place the greatest value on university degrees, and give more value to the skills and skills that the individual has that he can employ in the institution that wants to employ him
This leads me to talk about important topics in the science of foreseeing the future, namely

Signs and future directions
Future signs are all those events, inventions, services or startups, all those new events that appear somewhere in the world are signs of how the future could be. As a startup that appears today in the United States, it provides a service in a new way that can form a future direction for the sector in which that service operates. For example, a number of years ago when the ride-hailing company Tupper appeared, when that company appeared in the United States
This was a sign of the future of transportation that we see today. We also know that ride-sharing companies such as Uber, Careem, and Lift have clearly and greatly affected industries that existed, such as: the transportation industry and the employees working in these industries such as taxi drivers and other jobs

The importance of looking at future signs and trends lies in expanding our view of the current events. I would like to point out here the importance of looking at events, and how they may develop in the future. We must look at the signs and trends that occur not only in the technical fields, but also the signals and trends that develop and occur in the social, technical, environmental, economic, political and legal fields

 

Our tracking of signs and trends in all these areas gives us a more comprehensive view of what is happening now and how it might develop in the future. The future includes services, ways of working and ways of moving, there are indications of them that exist somewhere now in terms of inventions, emerging companies as we said, but they are not visible and their impact is not seen by everyone to the same extent, but when these services and trends develop and become general in influence, then we say that the future is has resolved.

Future directions:


Future directions are divided into several types based on their size and scope of influence. There are:

Climate change
Digitization
Organization
Migration to urban areas and the growth of large cities
The other type of future orientation is called
Macro trends

They are significant and noticeable changes that indicate a specific trend, and their time scale as well. Although this trend is widespread and noticed by many, it does not necessarily affect the entire world or all stakeholders or regions. An example of a large trend is: cybercrime.

Trends Micro

They are the initial signs of a major trend that may occur, and their impact ranges from 3-5 years, and they are limited to a specific region or consumer market. Examples of micro-trends: bicycle culture, home robotics. We talked about all these terms, but what is the outlook for the future? Or what is the science of foreseeing the future?


-

One of the definitions that I always like to use is that foreseeing the future is the science that employs tools that help us as countries, institutions or individuals to identify opportunities, trends and challenges for us, and thus enables us to analyze these opportunities, challenges and trends to see the extent of their impact on developing innovative solutions and initiatives. It helps us to generate alternatives through which we deal with these developments

Challenges and opportunities as well, and if we want to review how countries and companies have applied future foresight methodologies and tools, and what are the most prominent stages that are being talked about in this field, we will see that everyone agrees on three main stages, and these stages begin with

1- The first stage: Exploring signs and future directions, and some of them refer to them as foresight or sensing, and this stage through which our vision and awareness of what is happening around us is expanded in various fields, as we said, social, environmental, and others.

2- The second stage: is the analysis stage, or building perceptions about the future based on what was sensed in the previous stage, and some call it the analysis stage, or the planning stage as well.


3- The third stage: It is the stage that everyone agrees on, and it is the stage of action, or action, or the stage through which action plans, initiatives, and projects are built that will help us deal with future challenges and directions.

The failure of organizations to explore and analyze the impact of future trends and developments leads to dire consequences for them, and one of the stories I mention in this field: “It was in 2007, when the first iPhone was released by the CEO of Apple at the time, Steve Jobs. The CEO of a competing company, IBM, stated that no one wants to buy a mobile device, a mobile that costs 600 or 700 dollars, that was in 2007, and after that we see that the iPhone has become one of the most sold cellular or mobile devices in the world
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The failure of large organizations to explore these developments and future trends and analyze their impact on their business environment leads to losing opportunities for growth, development and expansion, and worse than that, it may lead to the failure of this company and its cessation of work as a result of the emergence of new competitors in new services and products that outperform their products and services in terms of quality. and price and preference by users, and we all know the example of Kodak, the leading company in the field of photography and film production for photocopiers
As we know, the idea of a digital camera that does not need photographic film was presented by one of the engineers of the Kodak company, and he presented it to the company’s management, but the company’s management preferred not to invest in this field and to focus on the field of photography and photographic films because it was the main source of income for the organization The institution did not want to switch to a new technology that eliminates this income. On the other hand, among the institutions and companies that used the science of foreseeing the future and applied it to them, and achieved many results, is the Shell company. Initiatives and action plans to lead the organization so that they are ready for the future. An example from the Shell company is that when the oil crisis occurred in the 1973 70s specifically, Shell was one of the least affected companies as a result of that tense political situation globally (why)? As Shell specialists say, because they had prepared and seen Some of the signs that were indicating the possibility of such a crisis, and they re-scenarios of how to deal with this crisis if it occurs

On the level of institutions, an important study was issued in 2018 on hundreds of companies in the European Union, where a comparison was made between companies and institutions that apply methodologies and tools for future foresight, or what is called in the corporate world foresight strategic, or strategic foresight, and institutions that do not adopt these methodologies, and they found There is an increase of 33% in the profitability of the institutions that apply the methodologies of strategic foresight

At the level of countries, Singapore is one of the most prominent countries that developed methodologies for future foresight or strategic foresight, and made it one of the pillars of the annual review process of government strategies and the strategies of their institutions or government agencies. In our Arab world, the United Arab Emirates, and since 2016, has adopted a strategy for the future through which it defines the most important features of this strategy and the important axes or sectors for the future, such as energy, technology, transportation, health, and other sectors. Numerous publications and reports in this field have influenced future developments and directions
health, and other sectors. It enriched many publications in this field and reports that helped explore developments and future directions. I will add many links to these sources, which you can refer to later

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In these three stages that we talked about, there are many tools that can be applied in these stages:

In the exploration phase; There are tools such as: horizontal scanning or horizontal scanning

At the stage of analysis or building scenarios; There are the most prominent tools in this field, and it is a tool
Build future scenarios. God willing, we will talk about this tool in detail in the coming episodes
-
In the application or action phase; There are many tools such as planning tools, road
mapping, we will talk more about these tools in upcoming episodes

Among the important sources, which you can refer to to learn about future trends, developments, and signals, is URL ADD. There is an important resource in Arabic called the Future Observatory, and I will put the link to it in the description of the episode, and on our website. The Future Observatory is one of the initiatives of the Dubai Future Foundation, where it monitors the most prominent developments, inventions and future trends in many technical, social and other fields. There is an Ibtikar platform, which is a platform affiliated with the Center

There are many signs and directions of Mohammed bin Rashid Innovation, and this platform is also the future ADD URL

Dear ones, we have come to the end of the episode, but before we conclude this episode, in the book of the week section. This week, I will present to you not a book, but a guide to foreseeing the future, issued by the Cabinet Affairs in the United Arab Emirates in 2017. This guide is important because it divides the foreseeing process into five steps, and provides many tools and methodologies that can be applied to actions and plans. The work that can be applied by field in each of these steps leads to the process of foreseeing the future

I will also put a URL ADD link. I hope you have enjoyed and benefited from this episode, in which we talked about many terms and concepts related to the future and the process of foreseeing the future, its stages, and the most prominent tools that can be used in this field. We will talk, as promised, in the upcoming episodes, in more detail, about some of the tools that are used in shaping the future, and we will also host many distinguished experts in the coming episodes to talk about topics related to the science of shaping the future. Until then, we wish you good times, and follow us in our next episodes, and may God’s peace, mercy and blessings be upon you.

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